julymoon.com


December 24, 2003

Lumpy Returns
by Marcel Chartier

Many times I hear people complaining that their mutual funds were "suppose to double in the last seven years and they didn't, that was a waste of money". At that point they may say they took out the money, stopped contributing money to the investment. I usually cringe a bit inside, because this is the point in the game when the tide usually shifts. In many cases the funds are poised to break out, because the market is ready to move forward. And, the reason the funds lagged in growth is because the overall market had pulled back.

Folks who don't really pay attention to the markets tend to look at their investments in isolation from the overall markets, and this is a dangerous thing to do. You have to measure your investment performance in relation to the market. And the market provides "lumpy" returns : - 4% one year, 8% the next. some years 25%, some years - 15%. The theoretical average returns for the stock market over the past 60 years of 11% is an average of 60 years of "lumpy" returns. You may go as long as a decade without serious equity growth, this is unlikely, but possible. But, in the end, those returns will happen and it is most discouraging to find you have invested at the beginning of one of those droughts of equity growth.

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