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Economic Forecasting—Who do you believe: 
Klein, Manpower or the Ouija Board?

By Dave Werlin

Premier Klein, with an eye on Edmonton seats that have traditionally gone either to the New Democrats or Liberals, is talking at length about the job boom we Edmontonians are sure to enjoy a few months down the road. Even Calgary’s monied folk, he says, are thinking of investing in real estate and other business ventures in our fair city.

If that isn’t enough to warm the cockles of our hearts, you will be delighted that Manpower Canada claims a recent poll shows that 47 percent of Edmonton businesses plan on hiring more people come spring, while only 3 percent are contemplating cutting staff.

So what’s new about these consecutive harbingers of good news? Klein’s new found interest in Edmonton sounds like the spin doctors in the Tory backfield have told him to stop bragging about Calgary while campaigning in Edmonton. Give those northern city dwellers some good news. Good news from Ralphie is good news for Ralphie. Right?

As for Manpower’s good news poll, a few questions might be in order.

Question #1 – in the frozen North, is it not just a normal cyclical event to hire with the spring thaw and lay off or fire when the frost sets in again? There is really not much plowing and seeding in February. Landscaping, road construction, grain harvesting and many other sources of employment are summer time endeavors.

Question #2 – when asked about their hiring and firing policies, how many businessmen like to discuss their cut backs in advance of their usual early morning sneak attack on their unsuspecting, just bought-a-new-car employees?

Meanwhile, south of the border, our US neighbors are experiencing the most rapid slowdown of their economy in history. According to respected American economists and market analysts, the feel good Bush honeymoon has been short-lived and it appears as if the US is in for a much-longer and sharper recession than earlier predicted. Some analysts and many US politicians are still trying desperately to sound up beat about the economy. Not because they don’t see what’s coming, but because they say talk about a depression will cause a depression. People hearing such talk will begin saving for a rainy day and defer large investments such as new houses and cars, thereby slowing the economy even faster. That, of course, is the old head in the sand technique which is about as effective as the ouija board technique.

No matter which side of the argument is shouted the loudest, the fact remains that hundreds of thousands of workers are being thrown out of work in the US, Canada, Japan and other industrial countries.

The auto, airline, high tech, manufacturing and banking industries are all cutting back, tightening their belts and laying off huge numbers of workers.

Capitalism is and has always been a boom and bust system. No amount of emoting about a job boom by Ralph or unreliable polling by Manpower can hide the fact that a depression looms in the USA.

Having tied ourselves to the US wagon through the Free Trade Agreement and NAFTA, when the US economy slumps, Canadians will feel the pinch.

As for Ralphie and Manpower polsters, remember the old saying – "figures don’t lie but liars figure".

Personally, I would rather put my trust in a ouija board.

Dave Werlin is a past president of the Alberta Federation of Labour


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